PLAN OF WORK
Spandam es un proyecto financiado por la Unión Europea, a través de la Agencia Estatal de Investigación, coordinado y liderado por la Universidad de Valladolid.
El principal objetivo del proyecto es desarrollar una herramienta de simulación (un prototipo de pequeña escala) que pueda guiar la toma de decisiones y las políticas públicas tratando de conseguir un desarrollo demográfico equilibrado y sostenible, y también un desarrollo socioeconómico y medioambiental en áreas afectadas por la despoblación. Esta herramienta permitirá simular los efectos de las distintas políticas públicas e iniciativas privadas en los principales indicadores de desarrollo local y su efecto en la atracción del área para retener población y atraer a nuevos migrantes, así como potenciales inversores.
La estrategia de modelado de SPANDAM se centra en las interacciones (feedbacks) entre los componentes de sistema (interdisciplinariedad) más que en el detalle de los componentes por sí mismos a través de la Dinámica de Sistemas (DS). La dinámica de la población -incluyendo las migraciones- ha sido tratada por la DS y diversos modelos se han generado incluyendo no sólo las migraciones, sino también la epidemiología, el sistema de transporte, etc. Nuestro modelo integrado será traducido a una herramienta visual y explicativa de la dinámica de la población en España, permitiendo a los usuarios cambiar cualquier valor de cualquier variable para entender sus impactos en los indicadores seleccionados.
El modelo permitirá, así, entender las causas estructurales del desarrollo local y los efectos que las políticas públicas y las iniciativas privadas pueden tener en las principales variables del desarrollo económico, social y medioambiental a lo largo del tiempo. Unos indicadores específicos de desarrollo servirán para evaluar la atractividad para fijar población o atraer migrantes, así como detectar posibles desequilibrios o debilidades en los modelos de desarrollo locales.
Finalmente, como los servicios públicos son planificados acorde a su demanda y no en base a un análisis objetivo de las necesidades actuales y futuras de la población están habitualmente mal ajustados. En este aspecto, SPANDAM permitirá hacer simulaciones y mostrar valores futuros basados en tendencias demográficas y otras variables para que la planificación de políticas sea más eficiente, guiada ahora por datos ajustados a las necesidades.
Convocatoria: Convocatoria 2021 de ayudas a proyectos de investigación en líneas estratégicas, en colaboración público-privada
Propuesta: SPANDAM (Spanish Demographic Dynamics Assessment Model)
Código: PLEC2021-008041
Coordinador: University of Valladolid
Fecha de inicio: 1-11-2021
Fecha de finalización: 31-10-2024
Participantes: 6 socios
Hemos concebido el desarrollo de la herramienta Spandam a través de varios componentes o paquetes de trabajo. Cada uno de los paquetes de trabajo ha sido realizado por una de las entidades del consorcio, en función de su conocimiento y experiencia desarrollando cada área de trabajo.
A continuación se muestra cada paquete de trabajo ordenado según el mes de inicio y finalización del trabajo de desarrollo:
Paquete de trabajo 2: DATOS.
The objective of this work is to support that the model has good quality. To do this, first define the data requirements for the operation of the model, aiming at the existing databases in terms of quality and requirements. Subsequently, it is a selecjust compile and the full database of the project and its management. Then an assessment is made of the quality and reliability of the data. Finally, we develop an adequate infrastructure for the use of the data, and the open dissemination.
Course dates:
November 2021 – April 2023
Entity that leads the project:
Center for Demographic Studies – CED
- Definition of the data requirements for the operation of the model; reviewing existing databases in terms of quality and requirements.
- Selection and compilation of the complete data base of the project and its management.
- Evaluation of the quality and reliability of the data.
- Development of an appropriate infrastructure for the use of the data, and the open dissemination.
- Data management Plan
- Findings of the review of existing data and of the data collection
- Report on the integrity, validity, consistency and accuracy of the collected data.
- Infrastructure of data.
- Infrastructure data final
Paquete de trabajo 3: POLÍTICAS.
The objective of this work is to support that the model has good quality. To do this, first define the data requirements for the operation of the model, reviewing the existing databases in terms of quality and requirements. Subsequently, it is a selection and compilation of the complete data base of the project and its management. Then an assessment is made of the quality and reliability of the data. Finally, we develop an adequate infrastructure for the use of the data, and the open dissemination.
Course dates:
November 2021 – January 2023
Entity that leads the project:
University of Zaragoza – UNIZAR
- Compilation of public policies and private initiatives aimed to set population into the territories or to attract new migrants to settle in areas depopulated and/or to address inequalities of gender, age, ethnicity and class in these areas depopulated.
- Collection of cases of success and failure in the implementation of public policies and private initiatives against depopulation.
- Description and analysis of causal relationships between public policies and private initiatives discussed above and the variables in the model of local development.
- Report of public policies and private initiatives to secure the population and to address inequities in unpopulated areas.
- Report of cases of success and failure in the implementation of public policies and private initiatives against depopulation
- Report on the causal relationships between public policy and private initiative, and the variables in the model of local development.
- You do not have milestones
Paquete de trabajo 4: INDICADORES
The general objective in this area is to develop indicators of attractiveness of specific categories of territorial areas at the municipal level, provincial and regional levels according to their main economic characteristics and socio-demographic, as well as their material resources, natural and human.
To achieve this goal, we consider all available variables that directly and indirectly affects decisions related to mobility (both immigration and emigration). We will consider not only the labour migration, but also the migration for other reasons: migration, lifestyle migration, family migration, environmental and other. In addition, not only we will consider the factors that attract new residents, but also those factors which retain the people that are already living in the areas of interest.
Course dates:
November 2021 – January 2023
Entity that leads the project:
University of Salamanca – USAL
- Review of the literature. Review the state of the art in relation with the concept of attractiveness of the territory.
- Development of indicators combined attractive to residents.
- Development of indicators combined attractive to investors.
- Index of attractive specific. We develop indexes of attraction specific to certain segments of the population, according to the age or level of qualification, among others.
- Report on theoretical foundations and previous proposals of index of attractive.
- Full description of the indicators of attractiveness.
- Review of the indicators of development.
- Evaluation of indicators of attractiveness.
Paquete de trabajo 5: ESCENARIOS.
The goal in this area is to develop a set of possible scenarios at national and international level that may condition the local development and its indicators of reference.
The evolution of the economic variables and demographic national and international level, as well as the european and national policies, constitute the framework for the development at the local level and the possible application of measures local policies. The set of variables that define these international trends and national determine the scenarios. In this area we will set the narrative for a set of scenarios, selecting the most significant variables for the quantification of these scenarios and obtaining the projections of these variables. To do this, will be taken as a starting point scenarios that are already defined in the literature, and international agencies. To perform the projections of some of the variables may be used in the model MEDEAS (global and european) and the MODESLOW (national level), both models developed by the University of Valladolid.
Course dates:
November 2021 – October 2022
Entity that leads the project:
University of Valladolid – UVa
- International stage. Selection of possible international stages, in accordance with the provisions of evolution of the main variables of economic, social, demographic, and environmental.
- National stage. Selection of possible national scenarios, in accordance with the provisions of evolution of the main variables of economic, social, demographic, and environmental.
- Estimation of the effects of the variables defined in the scenarios on the model of local development and its indicators. The analysis of the causal relationships between the variables of reference scenarios and variables in the model of local development.
- Report on the international stage, and european to be used in the model.
- Report on the national scenarios to be used in the model.
- Report on the identification of the effects of the variables of the scenarios on the variables in the model.
- Identification of scenarios and their variables.
Paquete de trabajo 6: MODELADO.
The main objective in this area is the modeling and the programming of the structure of the local model. This model will be applied to the case study to show its capabilities. You will develop a model of reference demographic for the 17 autonomous communities, with the available data and projections under different scenarios. The local development model will be developed using the methodology of system Dynamics. This model will include modules, among others, to: demography, economy, health services, educational services, social services, housing and urban planning, transport and communication services, environment, cultural resources and heritage, and the environment.
Course dates:
November 2021 – October 2023
Entity that leads the project:
University of Valladolid – UVa
- Development of the demographic model of reference for the 17 autonomous communities of Spain.
- Development of a model of local development. The model will show resource dynamics and variables that determine the local development and consequently its ability to fix or to attract population, as well as other key indicators for a balanced and sustainable development.
- Integration of models. The model of local development should be integrated with the environment conditions established by the scenarios and policies.
- Demographic model for the autonomous communities: algorithms and procedures.
- Definition and integration of sub-models of demographic base.
- Complete description of the dynamic model of local development.
- Demographic model and submodels for the autonomous communities.
- Software program: dynamic model of local development.
Paquete de trabajo 7: CASO DE ESTUDIO.
The main objective in this area is to define the framework of evaluation to understand the status of each case study in order to define future avenues of development to improve local areas.
Here we will: understand the basis of reference cadacaso of the study (initial diagnosis), including past trends; determine the feasible policies that are to be applied; and draw conclusions based on the results of the assessment models local to each case study.
Course dates:
November 2022 – October 2024
Entity that leads the project:
Centro Tecnológico CARTIF
- Initial diagnosis of each case study: baseline of rural development and the social implications.
- Alignment of policies with local requirements.
- Application of the model of integrated assessment on each case study.
- Simulation and evaluation of local policies to provide recommendations.
- Definition of the baseline for each study case.
- Viable policies at the level of case study.
- Application and validation of the model in the case studies.
- Report on policy recommendations at the level of case study.
- Definition of the baseline for each case study (initial diagnosis: context and local requirements and prioritization policy).
- Publication of the final report of the diagnosis, the application of the model and recommendations for the case studies.
Paquete de trabajo 8: PROTOTIPO DE LA HERRAMIENTA.
This area has the objective to coordinate and carry out activities specific to define the prototype of the tool SPANDAM. Here is looking for: to generate the architecture of the tool demographic SPANDAM and his design through the application of novel methods for the collection of the needs of end-users; (b) investigate the integration of the model with the developments of software for the prototype of the tool; and to obtain a first prototype of the tool.
Course dates:
October 2022 – May 2024
Entity that leads the project:
Centro Tecnológico CARTIF
- Gathering the requirements and preferences of the users to develop the conceptual framework of the tool of rural development.
- Research on a definition of a common framework of ICT to meet the requirements of the end user.
- Development of interfaces frontend.
- Integration of models under the software architecture designed.
- Architecture of the tool, including the technical requirements and the stakeholders.
- Graphical user interface and functionalities of the tool SPANDAM.
- Prototype tool SPANDAM.
- The first version of the tool prototype SPANDAM.
Paquete de trabajo 9: Difusión, explotación y necesidades del usuario.
This WP aims to consider the needs of users and potential customers, in the methodology and the models of the Project, as well as to disseminate. It defines the following specific objectives: (i) meet current criteria followed, and the models/tools used for the process of decision-making in political, social and demographic trends; (ii) determine the needs of existing information for the adoption of decisions about social policies and demographic trends; (iii) define improvements in the concept and design of the models/final results of the Project to suit the needs of the potential customers; (iv) present models/results of the Project to attract customers and potential customers and create a market.
Course dates:
November 2021 – October 2024
Entity that leads the project:
Fresno
- Collection of information to understand the current process of political decision-making at the various administrative levels in the field of social cohesion and the demographic trends.
- Preliminary study of the market opportunities and potential clients.
- Plan of communication and dissemination. The Project will be disseminated during its development and in the extent to which the results and components are ready, with the aim of making their solutions and recommendations.
- To adjust the final products to the needs of potential users, it will create advisory committee comprised of experts.
- Report on how it is processed, the development of policies that leads to the practice of social policy, social cohesion and demographic trends.
- Market research report.
- Annual communication and dissemination of results.
- You do not have milestones
