Scenarios. Projections and assumptions in order to make simulations
Today we interviewed Juanjo Mediavilla, professor of the University of Valladolid, an entity that leads the phase of definition of the scenarios in the framework of the project SPANDAM.
Juanjo explains to us exactly what is this phase and how and for what are defined scenarios in this initiative of planning of public policy in response to the demographic challenge.
1. The University of Valladolid is the leading body of the definition phase of scenarios that might have a bearing on the local development and its indicators of reference in the project SPANDAM. What do we mean exactly by “scenario”?
The scenarios are hypothesized quantified of possible futures. Respond to questions of the type what would happen if...? In this sense, it is making projections internally consistent and assumptions about changes and future possibilities. Therefore, they have a character of course, handle uncertainty, are not prescriptions or predictions or indicators of what is going to happen or should happen.
Are defined by a set of inputs quantified (hypothesis, political objectives, policies, etc) that allow you to simulate a narrative of the model and get the results from the simulation.
2. Taking into account the variable that today is the socio-economic context at the international level and also national how they affect the possible changes, and on this basis, what scenarios are assessed for the next few years?
Here it is also important to the temporary variable, because the further we go in time, the more uncertainty we will generate.
Much of the literature taken as a reference to the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and that year as a time horizon. However, the studies that have as their object the climate change tend to consider very farthest horizons, as 2050 and 2100.
3. What are the most significant variables to take into account for the quantification of these scenarios? How many variables to include SPANDAM?
SPANDAM is a demographic model, so that the variables that we are interested in are the demographics (birth rate, mortality, migration, etc). The scenarios are the exogenous variables of the model, that is to say, those that the model does not calculate, but which are given in advance.
In this case, our variables of scenario will be, for example, in addition to demographic trends that have been mentioned, the increase in GDP, the employment and unemployment rates national, the number of doctors per capita, the percentage of GDP devoted to education, etc
4. There is literature on scenarios defined at national and international level. Does that count some of them as a starting point, or will be built new, and adapted to the peculiarities of current Spanish?
Yes. The literature is very wide. In SPANDAM we have performed a systematic analysis of it. In general, we will build three scenarios of their own. One optimistic (understood as optimistic a trend of “positive” of the variables, that is to say, a significant increase in investments and policies aimed at the demographic balance, linked to conditions suitable for this, such as economic growth).
Another pessimistic, understood as the opposite: a significant decrease of investments and policies aimed at the demographic balance, which can be “voluntary” (by policy decision) or come to (by economic decline that does not allow public investments in this issue).
The third party would be the BAU (Business as Usual), that would mean a quantification of the current trends.
5. In what state is that phase now?
Today we have collected scenarios of european and international. We are in the phase of definition of the scenarios that we use in our models. In this sense, working first in the qualitative to go to the quantitative. That is, we first define the narratives of these three scenarios and then quantified variables.
6. One of the main hallmarks of SPANDAM is the methodology of system Dynamics. What is exactly this methodology?
System dynamics is a methodology widely used in engineering, organization of enterprises, economy, etc. it Is a way to access the reality, understanding this as a complex and multivariate, that is to say, as a complex environment, whose purpose is to develop simulation models. In this mode, the non-linear nature of the society and its elements, demographic may be the object of this methodology.
In this sense, the dynamics of systems would be developed models of management rather than prediction. That is to say, we are not trying to predict the future, but rather to establish what alternative among the possible is the best. We do not try to find a pinpoint accuracy, but rather to establish and quantify comparisons.
The dynamics of systems is also different from other modelling techniques such as econometrics.
7. What is the experience of the University of Valladolid in this type of project, and on the basis of it what added value as a partner?
The research group recognized GEEDS of the University of Valladolid is an expert in system Dynamics. Formed in 2008 as a team of trans-disciplinary research that integrates researchers from different fields (engineering, economics, sociology, philosophy, physics, etc) with the aim of analyzing the transformations needed to achieve sustainability, with special attention to energy issues, economic and social.
To achieve this goal, GEEDS develops simulation models to analyse the effects of different alternatives and help in decision making. Abundant research shows that the transition to sustainability will require deep technical changes, but also economic and social. Therefore, it is necessary multidisciplinarity to assess the impacts, synergies and trade-offs of the transition towards a socio-economy sustainable, low-carbon emissions
Currently, it counts with more than thirty members, including researchers, pre-and postdoctoral, teachers and co-workers. The group has demonstrated its experience in european projects in which it participates. At this time, in addition, we are the coordinators of a project H2020 is about to culminate with success.
